7/14/2010

Lebanon four years after...

With the end of the 2010 world cup, the Spanish national soccer team claims the title as football world champions... For the Lebanese, it meant running through the streets with a Spanish flag. As I returned home from watching the match with a friend, I witnessed two young children from a nearby balcony shouting to me "Monsieur! Viva l'Espana!" I kept on moving to my building's entrance without even flinching at their comments. The whole experience of the World Cup in Lebanon is astonishing, because its population decides to embody almost all of the teams who are in the cup and parade in the streets on their behalf. One neighborhood erects a gigantic Germany flag. Another puts up a Brazilian flag. These flags leave the Lebanese flags...few and far between...

Perhaps this isn't the most significant part of my post. It is more interesting because of what fears this environment evokes. It reminds us all of what followed during the last World Cup. The unexpected confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel in the summer of 2006. This year, it has become almost an accepted belief that war will break out this summer, as soon as the football is finished... That has happened and here we are, eagerly awaiting the fate of Lebanon's summer. With tourism at an all-time high and Lebanon's relative stability continuing, it seems like a recipe for disaster in the making (only in Lebanon)..

While many hold the belief that when Italy wins, Lebanon suffers with a war or invasion. This year we will have to wait and see if the Spanish victory will spare the Lebanese summer. Maybe it's not a bad thing for the Lebanese to wave the Spanish flag, or to go down to the South and embrace the Spanish troops that are working as part of UNIFIL. Instead, villages are confronting them and challenging their patrols. Instead they should be welcoming them and inviting them to stay as long as they can, because the moment they leave will be a harsh moment for Lebanon..

From the World Cup to the United Nation's Interim Force in Lebanon... Respect the Spanish...

5/09/2008

The Perfect Storm Followed by the "Perfect Storm"

The last few days have gathered together the perfect storm for Lebanon to erupt. A strike was held and taken hostage by the feuding opponents of the Lebanese government. After the leader of Hizballah spoke, Beirut witnessed some of the nastiest street fights it has seen since the unforgettable civil war. Residents of Beirut were left listening to the sounds of bullets and grenades and rendered helpless.

I recall at one moment, all I could do is pray for rain. Rain for some reason, which is very rare during the spring and summertime, might be able to slow down the deterioration and aid in restoring the calm.

Unbelievably, I'm sitting here at almost 3 am, during a very violent thunderstorm which woke me up from my brief sleep. I was almost certain I was hearing RPGs or some sort of explosion, but it was ordinary thunder. I felt that I had to write at least for my own thought and record of how this perfect storm just seem to enter the scene at the right time. While I don't have the energy to keep writing, I couldn't resist putting this one in the books. :)

3/23/2008

End of the 40 days of Mourning

The latest twist in the fate of Lebanon finds the country and its people brought once again to their knees by foreign powers. With the Arab Summit approaching (ironically being held in Damascus), the main topic of discussion is supposed to be how to end the stalemate in Lebanon. This will prove to be an extreme challenge with the Lebanese delegation absent at the Arab League event. Other Arab countries have threatened to boycott the event if Lebanon does not have a president. Since there has been no signs of a deal, it would seem these countries will have to make good on their threats.

While this topic is worth reflecting on, I would rather take a minute to discuss the current threat of conflict, the new potential Israeli-Lebanese War. One could say that this new war began in February with the assassination of Imad Moughnieh.

I remember hearing on February 13th that Imad Moughnieh was assassinated in Damascus. My initial reaction was of pure shock because I knew how covert this guy was in all his movements and activities. He was so good at keeping on the down low that many intelligence agencies didn't even have a photograph of him.

He was killed in a carbomb assassination, which Hizballah holds Israel responsible for and has guaranteed retaliation for this loss. Israel has told Hizballah and Syria through different diplomatic messengers that it will retaliate for any retaliatory attack.

In the end, this leaves Lebanon staring down another potential war that will push the country to the brink of internal and external breakdown. The real question is when will the foreign powers open the gates of hell?

1/16/2008

The Infinite Perceptions of Reality

News in Lebanon travels fast. You sit. You wait. You hear about an explosion. You wait. You hear that it was in a certain area. You wait. The area changes. Someone tells you they heard it, they see smoke, it was definitely a bombing. But who? Why? All of these questions keep swirling in your head. Plenty of people will offer what they think, and when the day is done, you probably have heard just about every possibility out there.

THIS TIME, it was a bit different for me. After living here for three years, you gradually begin to accept a situation, and everytime something happens you just sink a little further into depression, but feel that eventually it will just go away. The last bombing, the assassination of Francois Hajj, left me depressed and not in the mood to write, because in the end, I feel like I am writing the same thing over and over again, which might reflect exactly how the Lebanese feel. It's like having a disease that slowly breaks you, so slowly that you have enough time to develop a false sense of improvement; this is the Lebanese disease. However, this time, it was "close to home".

Today, around 4:40pm, a remote controled bomb was detonated as a U.S. Embassy vehicle passed by on the searoad, near Nahar l Mout. Witnesses have said that a car was trying to pass the diplomatic vehicle and inadvertently took the brunt of the explosion as the bomb was detonated. The embassy SUV was lightly damaged, in comparison to the car that was mangled next to it. 4 people died. 20 injured.

No one has claimed responsibility for the attack up til now. The question may never be answered. The more important question is where exactly is this country going? In the end, all of the victims of this horrific attack WERE LEBANESE.

As an American living in Lebanon, I have to admit that the situation has left me with a new fear. Not only are there explosions in Lebanon, but they have begun to target my country, which includes me, even if I don't agree with the current politics. At the end of the day, I'm American, I will be seen as an American, and my intentions are irrelevant. This new dynamic has brought me back to my original fears, leaving me in solitude.

The hardest part is getting up the next day and trying to live it as you did the day before, hoping that the situation will calm down.

If history is any indicator of events, it would look as if Lebanon is yet again destined for another rocky dead end, leading to civil strife. The only thing that can save them is the "watan", which is what someone told me, and I believe she is right. "Watan" translates as nation, but carries a meaning that is beyond words, that only one man has seemed to have mastered. I leave you with this thought.

"Pity the Nation" by Khalil Gibran

Pity the nation that is full of beliefs and empty of religion.

Pity the nation that wears a cloth it does not weave, eats a bread it does not harvest, and drinks a wine that flows not from its own wine-press.

Pity the nation that acclaims the bully as hero, and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful.

Pity a nation that despises a passion in its dream, yet submits in its awakening.

Pity the nation that raises not its voice save when it walks in a funeral, boasts not except among its ruins, and will rebel not save when its neck is laid between the sword and the block.

Pity the nation whose statesman is a fox, whose philosopher is a juggler, and whose art is the art of patching and mimicking.

Pity the nation that welcomes its new ruler with trumpeting, and farewells him with hooting, only to welcome another with trumpeting again.

Pity the nation whose sages are dumb with years and whose strong men are yet in the cradle.

Pity the nation divided into fragments, each fragment deeming itself a nation.

11/12/2007

The Slippery Slope

I guess this is as good a time as any to start writing again. I know I have been silent for the past few months, but I feel like this is all due to my unfortunate adaptation to the lebanese environment. I have slowly become indifferent to a situation that once struck me with awe.

The current situation on the ground shows that it will not be a quiet week nor month. There is a great likelihood that some type of conflict will break out before the presidential election has time to take place. Why u ask? Well, let's just look at the regional and local players.

Syria - It has been sidelined from the latest events, holding only two wild cards: Lebanon and Iraq. Syria will do just about anything to retrieve its lost territory and needs to jockey for a new position at the table. Look for Syria to take a bold step soon.

Hizballah - The Shi'ite Political Militia is working on preserving its lifeline through domestic shows of force. It will do anything to keep an ally in Baabda or do it's best to keep the elections from happening. Look for some type of knee jerk reaction following Syria's bold step to set off some type of conflict, postponing the election

Iran - need to say anything other than.. nuclear program? the Iranians will do anything to take the International Communities eyes and sanctions off of them. Why not send some telegrams to South Lebanon to raise the roof?

Israel - The poor little country who lives in a jungle, surrounded by big bad hungry lions, is looking for a way to regain its deterrent strategy in Lebanon. The little country that could will do whatever it takes to put the shine back on the IDF's brass.

to be continued...

7/07/2007

July 15th... the countdown begins....

I heard July 7th, 12th, and 15th.. You wouldn't believe rumors, I mean who does anyway? What has caught me by surprise is that the rumors have been circulating ever since the ceasefire in August. The latest word on the streets of Beirut go along the lines that Syria is going to pull out all of its citizens from Lebanon due to "security concerns" and ultimately close the borders, leaving Lebanon landlocked. In addition to the Syrian move, there are rumors that the Opposition movement will take the opportunity to set up a second government. This hasn't happened since the civil war, so it will be bringing Lebanon on the brink of a second civil war, which promises to be as bloody as the first.

While these rumors continue to circulate, the second major rumor is a war between Israel and Syria that will drag Lebanon along with it. The battlefield will go beyond the South this time, as Hezbollah has been preparing it's new strategy in the Bekaa Valley, a stronghold which it would like to exploit in another guerrilla warfare style fight with Israel.

What do the two rumors have in common? Well, it's a good question and worthy of some analysis. If in fact the opposition does take the bold step of setting up a second government, then it will jeopardize the safety of the UNIFIL forces in the South. The second government's jurisdiction may not include greater Beirut, but it's constituents largely are found throughout the South. This second government could ask for UNIFIL to withdraw, allowing Hezbollah to re-establish its presence along the Israeli border which would be the biggest blow they can deal to Israeli PM Olmert. Olmert hangs by his teeth on his claim that Hezbollah no longer has presence on the border and that the war was not fought in vain. This can all be a different story come July 15th.

This move would send Lebanon down a terrible path of instablity and chaos, especially when looking at the National Army. While the country has grown very patriotic after the events occuring in the North between the Fatah al Islam fighters and the Lebanese Army, this support could split based on the Army's action or inaction. Keeping the Army neutral will become a major problem for Commander Michel Suleiman, as the soldiers do feel ultimately loyalty to their background, which in short, translates to their religion. Look for a struggle within the Army and it's ability to stay inactive or active. Once the army goes, the last institution trusted by all Lebanese, the country will plunge into a fiery abyss.

The solutions lie outside of Lebanon, as the conflict seems less and less about Lebanon and more about the fight for regional supremacy between the US and Syria and Iran.

Summer in Lebanon seems to reflect everything except summer: a season for relaxation, entertainment, and tourism. Lebanon has found summer to be a convenient season for political upheaval, crisis, and war.

6/22/2007

More Weapons for Israel

Rewarding a country that proved to be irresponsible with American weapons by increasing military aid, and not to mention EXPEDITING THE PROCESS!



Washington to increase military aid to Israel
By Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner

WASHINGTON - The United States will increase its military assistance to Israel and sign a new agreement securing American aid to the country for the next decade, President George W. Bush announced Tuesday following his meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Olmert had persuaded Bush to announce the aid increase, senior political sources said yesterday.

Prior to Olmert's visit to Washington it was agreed that the issue would be raised during their meeting, but the President gave his response to the Israeli request for increased military assistance only during the meeting with the prime minister.

"The increase of the military assistance is the most important result of Olmert's visit to the United States," the political sources said. This year, Israel will receive $2.4 billion in military aid from the U.S.

The agreement concluded by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to which the United States' economic aid package to Israel would be gradually diminished and the military aid would increase, is ending this year.

According to the existing arrangement, most of the grant is meant for procurement from the U.S. industry, and Israel is allowed to spend 26.7 percent of the military assistance in shekel purchases for acquisitions from local defense industries.

Israel asked for a gradual increase in the aid over a 10-year period at the tune of $50 million per year. At the end of the 10 years, Israel will receive $2.9 billion annually in military assistance from the U.S.

Olmert told the president that an announcement on the increase in aid would be an expression of American support for Israel against the growing threates to its existence in the region.

In its announcement, the U.S. reiterated that the increased funds will allow Israel to deal with the new challenges it faces and to ensure a "qualitative military edge."

The prime minister asked U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates for his assistance in expediting the handling of a number of IDF procurement requests meant to complete the replenishment of equipment and stores used during the Second Lebanon War.

Gates pointed out that though there is no problem with the requests in principle, there is an orderly procedure. However, Bush intervened and directed the defense secretary to expedite approval of the IDF's requests.