I guess this is as good a time as any to start writing again. I know I have been silent for the past few months, but I feel like this is all due to my unfortunate adaptation to the lebanese environment. I have slowly become indifferent to a situation that once struck me with awe.
The current situation on the ground shows that it will not be a quiet week nor month. There is a great likelihood that some type of conflict will break out before the presidential election has time to take place. Why u ask? Well, let's just look at the regional and local players.
Syria - It has been sidelined from the latest events, holding only two wild cards: Lebanon and Iraq. Syria will do just about anything to retrieve its lost territory and needs to jockey for a new position at the table. Look for Syria to take a bold step soon.
Hizballah - The Shi'ite Political Militia is working on preserving its lifeline through domestic shows of force. It will do anything to keep an ally in Baabda or do it's best to keep the elections from happening. Look for some type of knee jerk reaction following Syria's bold step to set off some type of conflict, postponing the election
Iran - need to say anything other than.. nuclear program? the Iranians will do anything to take the International Communities eyes and sanctions off of them. Why not send some telegrams to South Lebanon to raise the roof?
Israel - The poor little country who lives in a jungle, surrounded by big bad hungry lions, is looking for a way to regain its deterrent strategy in Lebanon. The little country that could will do whatever it takes to put the shine back on the IDF's brass.
to be continued...
11/12/2007
7/07/2007
July 15th... the countdown begins....
I heard July 7th, 12th, and 15th.. You wouldn't believe rumors, I mean who does anyway? What has caught me by surprise is that the rumors have been circulating ever since the ceasefire in August. The latest word on the streets of Beirut go along the lines that Syria is going to pull out all of its citizens from Lebanon due to "security concerns" and ultimately close the borders, leaving Lebanon landlocked. In addition to the Syrian move, there are rumors that the Opposition movement will take the opportunity to set up a second government. This hasn't happened since the civil war, so it will be bringing Lebanon on the brink of a second civil war, which promises to be as bloody as the first.
While these rumors continue to circulate, the second major rumor is a war between Israel and Syria that will drag Lebanon along with it. The battlefield will go beyond the South this time, as Hezbollah has been preparing it's new strategy in the Bekaa Valley, a stronghold which it would like to exploit in another guerrilla warfare style fight with Israel.
What do the two rumors have in common? Well, it's a good question and worthy of some analysis. If in fact the opposition does take the bold step of setting up a second government, then it will jeopardize the safety of the UNIFIL forces in the South. The second government's jurisdiction may not include greater Beirut, but it's constituents largely are found throughout the South. This second government could ask for UNIFIL to withdraw, allowing Hezbollah to re-establish its presence along the Israeli border which would be the biggest blow they can deal to Israeli PM Olmert. Olmert hangs by his teeth on his claim that Hezbollah no longer has presence on the border and that the war was not fought in vain. This can all be a different story come July 15th.
This move would send Lebanon down a terrible path of instablity and chaos, especially when looking at the National Army. While the country has grown very patriotic after the events occuring in the North between the Fatah al Islam fighters and the Lebanese Army, this support could split based on the Army's action or inaction. Keeping the Army neutral will become a major problem for Commander Michel Suleiman, as the soldiers do feel ultimately loyalty to their background, which in short, translates to their religion. Look for a struggle within the Army and it's ability to stay inactive or active. Once the army goes, the last institution trusted by all Lebanese, the country will plunge into a fiery abyss.
The solutions lie outside of Lebanon, as the conflict seems less and less about Lebanon and more about the fight for regional supremacy between the US and Syria and Iran.
Summer in Lebanon seems to reflect everything except summer: a season for relaxation, entertainment, and tourism. Lebanon has found summer to be a convenient season for political upheaval, crisis, and war.
While these rumors continue to circulate, the second major rumor is a war between Israel and Syria that will drag Lebanon along with it. The battlefield will go beyond the South this time, as Hezbollah has been preparing it's new strategy in the Bekaa Valley, a stronghold which it would like to exploit in another guerrilla warfare style fight with Israel.
What do the two rumors have in common? Well, it's a good question and worthy of some analysis. If in fact the opposition does take the bold step of setting up a second government, then it will jeopardize the safety of the UNIFIL forces in the South. The second government's jurisdiction may not include greater Beirut, but it's constituents largely are found throughout the South. This second government could ask for UNIFIL to withdraw, allowing Hezbollah to re-establish its presence along the Israeli border which would be the biggest blow they can deal to Israeli PM Olmert. Olmert hangs by his teeth on his claim that Hezbollah no longer has presence on the border and that the war was not fought in vain. This can all be a different story come July 15th.
This move would send Lebanon down a terrible path of instablity and chaos, especially when looking at the National Army. While the country has grown very patriotic after the events occuring in the North between the Fatah al Islam fighters and the Lebanese Army, this support could split based on the Army's action or inaction. Keeping the Army neutral will become a major problem for Commander Michel Suleiman, as the soldiers do feel ultimately loyalty to their background, which in short, translates to their religion. Look for a struggle within the Army and it's ability to stay inactive or active. Once the army goes, the last institution trusted by all Lebanese, the country will plunge into a fiery abyss.
The solutions lie outside of Lebanon, as the conflict seems less and less about Lebanon and more about the fight for regional supremacy between the US and Syria and Iran.
Summer in Lebanon seems to reflect everything except summer: a season for relaxation, entertainment, and tourism. Lebanon has found summer to be a convenient season for political upheaval, crisis, and war.
6/22/2007
More Weapons for Israel
Rewarding a country that proved to be irresponsible with American weapons by increasing military aid, and not to mention EXPEDITING THE PROCESS!
Washington to increase military aid to Israel
By Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner
WASHINGTON - The United States will increase its military assistance to Israel and sign a new agreement securing American aid to the country for the next decade, President George W. Bush announced Tuesday following his meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Olmert had persuaded Bush to announce the aid increase, senior political sources said yesterday.
Prior to Olmert's visit to Washington it was agreed that the issue would be raised during their meeting, but the President gave his response to the Israeli request for increased military assistance only during the meeting with the prime minister.
"The increase of the military assistance is the most important result of Olmert's visit to the United States," the political sources said. This year, Israel will receive $2.4 billion in military aid from the U.S.
The agreement concluded by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to which the United States' economic aid package to Israel would be gradually diminished and the military aid would increase, is ending this year.
According to the existing arrangement, most of the grant is meant for procurement from the U.S. industry, and Israel is allowed to spend 26.7 percent of the military assistance in shekel purchases for acquisitions from local defense industries.
Israel asked for a gradual increase in the aid over a 10-year period at the tune of $50 million per year. At the end of the 10 years, Israel will receive $2.9 billion annually in military assistance from the U.S.
Olmert told the president that an announcement on the increase in aid would be an expression of American support for Israel against the growing threates to its existence in the region.
In its announcement, the U.S. reiterated that the increased funds will allow Israel to deal with the new challenges it faces and to ensure a "qualitative military edge."
The prime minister asked U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates for his assistance in expediting the handling of a number of IDF procurement requests meant to complete the replenishment of equipment and stores used during the Second Lebanon War.
Gates pointed out that though there is no problem with the requests in principle, there is an orderly procedure. However, Bush intervened and directed the defense secretary to expedite approval of the IDF's requests.
Washington to increase military aid to Israel
By Aluf Benn and Shmuel Rosner
WASHINGTON - The United States will increase its military assistance to Israel and sign a new agreement securing American aid to the country for the next decade, President George W. Bush announced Tuesday following his meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Olmert had persuaded Bush to announce the aid increase, senior political sources said yesterday.
Prior to Olmert's visit to Washington it was agreed that the issue would be raised during their meeting, but the President gave his response to the Israeli request for increased military assistance only during the meeting with the prime minister.
"The increase of the military assistance is the most important result of Olmert's visit to the United States," the political sources said. This year, Israel will receive $2.4 billion in military aid from the U.S.
The agreement concluded by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to which the United States' economic aid package to Israel would be gradually diminished and the military aid would increase, is ending this year.
According to the existing arrangement, most of the grant is meant for procurement from the U.S. industry, and Israel is allowed to spend 26.7 percent of the military assistance in shekel purchases for acquisitions from local defense industries.
Israel asked for a gradual increase in the aid over a 10-year period at the tune of $50 million per year. At the end of the 10 years, Israel will receive $2.9 billion annually in military assistance from the U.S.
Olmert told the president that an announcement on the increase in aid would be an expression of American support for Israel against the growing threates to its existence in the region.
In its announcement, the U.S. reiterated that the increased funds will allow Israel to deal with the new challenges it faces and to ensure a "qualitative military edge."
The prime minister asked U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates for his assistance in expediting the handling of a number of IDF procurement requests meant to complete the replenishment of equipment and stores used during the Second Lebanon War.
Gates pointed out that though there is no problem with the requests in principle, there is an orderly procedure. However, Bush intervened and directed the defense secretary to expedite approval of the IDF's requests.
5/23/2007
From Street Fights to Bombings - Sinking Back to Violence
Violence, it is something we all witness at some point in our life. Some people see it daily and others see it once in their lifetime. It does scar you, but the funny part is, as anything in life, if it happens a lot you just become immune to it. Now I'm asking myself, have I become one of them? This week has seen the one of the bloodiest times in Lebanon (concerning internal fighting). For those of you who have missed the news, or due to poor coverage... A group of Islamic militants known as Fatah al Islam فتح الإسلام has been resisting the Lebanese Army. The trouble recently started with a bank robbery in a small Lebanese village, Amion. The perpetrators made off with approximately $150,000. The car used in the robbery was traced back to this group, Fatah al Islam. The Lebanese Police raided an apartment used by the group in Tripoli early on Sunday(May 20th)and the militants resisted arrest. They started a small gunfight. In tandem with this gunfight, militants started to attack army positions near the Nahar al Bared Palestinian refugee camp. This is how the current conflict started. The army has been fighting the militants, all the while there were two massive explosions in Beirut. The first, in Mar Mitr, Achrafieh, ripped through cars in a parking lot adjacent to the ABC Achrafieh Shopping Mall. The blast, which happened at 11:50pm on Monday, was heard as far away as Jounieh and Jbeil. I was personally watching tv and talking on the phone when the blast rocked my apartment. I will never be able to clearly articulate what it feels like to be in a situation like that.. It is a mixture of feelings that take over. The first is the pure shock and fright from the noise, the second is a sense of being lost and not knowing where it happened. Was it next door? Was it the Israelis? Was it just a sonic boom? I ran outside to see if I could find smoke, but there wasn't any in sight. I talked to others in the neighborhood and they shared with me their stories and the shaking they experienced. After 20 mins, I was able to find out it was near the shopping mall. The next feeling is the insecurity of walking anywhere and the realization that it could have been me. I do walk past that street on a daily basis. I don't know why, but I didn't run to this blog to write about the experience, and that is what is starting to scare me. I feel like it's something that just happenes based on the time that i have spent here. It has become as common as seeing a bad car wreck in the US. You take a look at it, and are thankful it wasn't u.
The next night, there was an explosion in West Beirut.. The first since i have moved to Lebanon. This is what made me wonder who was responsible. Verdan is an upscale Sunni neighborhood. You can find some of the best shopping there, as it is quite fancy with a string of restaurants and stores. Luckily enough, there were no casualties. A few people were wounded but no deaths were reported according to my knowledge.
Now back to the main story. The army is currently sitting outside the Nahar al Bared Palestinian camp, waiting for the right moment to strike. I heard from an inside source that Lebanon is currently receiving weapons from the Gulf that are more sophisticated and will get the job done quickly. While they waiting, thousands of Palestinian civilians have fled their homes in the camp to seek shelter from the shelling. The shelling was as harsh as anything I have seen. The smoke clouds had an erie resemblance of those generated by Israeli missiles.
So what is next? The army has gotten the green light from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to enter the camp and uproot the militant organization. Some are predicting a fast operation and others believe it will be a long operation that will take weeks. We will have to wait and see. As for me, I have been just commuting back and forth between my work in downtown and my house in Achrafieh. It's probably one of the dullest moments of my life, but I can't take the risk.
The army has stepped up it's security measures by setting up tons of checkpoints. I had my own fun experience when the army pulled me and my friend over and ordered us to "Get on the ground". I have to say that i don't blame them because I haven't shaved in 2 months, but it is helping me keep on the low down as I seem to fit in more. I don't really want to scream out as an American, but I'm sure that it's not only my appearance that gives it away.
That's it for now. I will write more soon. Take care and I hope everyone out there has a quiet night.
The next night, there was an explosion in West Beirut.. The first since i have moved to Lebanon. This is what made me wonder who was responsible. Verdan is an upscale Sunni neighborhood. You can find some of the best shopping there, as it is quite fancy with a string of restaurants and stores. Luckily enough, there were no casualties. A few people were wounded but no deaths were reported according to my knowledge.
Now back to the main story. The army is currently sitting outside the Nahar al Bared Palestinian camp, waiting for the right moment to strike. I heard from an inside source that Lebanon is currently receiving weapons from the Gulf that are more sophisticated and will get the job done quickly. While they waiting, thousands of Palestinian civilians have fled their homes in the camp to seek shelter from the shelling. The shelling was as harsh as anything I have seen. The smoke clouds had an erie resemblance of those generated by Israeli missiles.
So what is next? The army has gotten the green light from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to enter the camp and uproot the militant organization. Some are predicting a fast operation and others believe it will be a long operation that will take weeks. We will have to wait and see. As for me, I have been just commuting back and forth between my work in downtown and my house in Achrafieh. It's probably one of the dullest moments of my life, but I can't take the risk.
The army has stepped up it's security measures by setting up tons of checkpoints. I had my own fun experience when the army pulled me and my friend over and ordered us to "Get on the ground". I have to say that i don't blame them because I haven't shaved in 2 months, but it is helping me keep on the low down as I seem to fit in more. I don't really want to scream out as an American, but I'm sure that it's not only my appearance that gives it away.
That's it for now. I will write more soon. Take care and I hope everyone out there has a quiet night.
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