I heard July 7th, 12th, and 15th.. You wouldn't believe rumors, I mean who does anyway? What has caught me by surprise is that the rumors have been circulating ever since the ceasefire in August. The latest word on the streets of Beirut go along the lines that Syria is going to pull out all of its citizens from Lebanon due to "security concerns" and ultimately close the borders, leaving Lebanon landlocked. In addition to the Syrian move, there are rumors that the Opposition movement will take the opportunity to set up a second government. This hasn't happened since the civil war, so it will be bringing Lebanon on the brink of a second civil war, which promises to be as bloody as the first.
While these rumors continue to circulate, the second major rumor is a war between Israel and Syria that will drag Lebanon along with it. The battlefield will go beyond the South this time, as Hezbollah has been preparing it's new strategy in the Bekaa Valley, a stronghold which it would like to exploit in another guerrilla warfare style fight with Israel.
What do the two rumors have in common? Well, it's a good question and worthy of some analysis. If in fact the opposition does take the bold step of setting up a second government, then it will jeopardize the safety of the UNIFIL forces in the South. The second government's jurisdiction may not include greater Beirut, but it's constituents largely are found throughout the South. This second government could ask for UNIFIL to withdraw, allowing Hezbollah to re-establish its presence along the Israeli border which would be the biggest blow they can deal to Israeli PM Olmert. Olmert hangs by his teeth on his claim that Hezbollah no longer has presence on the border and that the war was not fought in vain. This can all be a different story come July 15th.
This move would send Lebanon down a terrible path of instablity and chaos, especially when looking at the National Army. While the country has grown very patriotic after the events occuring in the North between the Fatah al Islam fighters and the Lebanese Army, this support could split based on the Army's action or inaction. Keeping the Army neutral will become a major problem for Commander Michel Suleiman, as the soldiers do feel ultimately loyalty to their background, which in short, translates to their religion. Look for a struggle within the Army and it's ability to stay inactive or active. Once the army goes, the last institution trusted by all Lebanese, the country will plunge into a fiery abyss.
The solutions lie outside of Lebanon, as the conflict seems less and less about Lebanon and more about the fight for regional supremacy between the US and Syria and Iran.
Summer in Lebanon seems to reflect everything except summer: a season for relaxation, entertainment, and tourism. Lebanon has found summer to be a convenient season for political upheaval, crisis, and war.
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