I guess this is as good a time as any to start writing again. I know I have been silent for the past few months, but I feel like this is all due to my unfortunate adaptation to the lebanese environment. I have slowly become indifferent to a situation that once struck me with awe.
The current situation on the ground shows that it will not be a quiet week nor month. There is a great likelihood that some type of conflict will break out before the presidential election has time to take place. Why u ask? Well, let's just look at the regional and local players.
Syria - It has been sidelined from the latest events, holding only two wild cards: Lebanon and Iraq. Syria will do just about anything to retrieve its lost territory and needs to jockey for a new position at the table. Look for Syria to take a bold step soon.
Hizballah - The Shi'ite Political Militia is working on preserving its lifeline through domestic shows of force. It will do anything to keep an ally in Baabda or do it's best to keep the elections from happening. Look for some type of knee jerk reaction following Syria's bold step to set off some type of conflict, postponing the election
Iran - need to say anything other than.. nuclear program? the Iranians will do anything to take the International Communities eyes and sanctions off of them. Why not send some telegrams to South Lebanon to raise the roof?
Israel - The poor little country who lives in a jungle, surrounded by big bad hungry lions, is looking for a way to regain its deterrent strategy in Lebanon. The little country that could will do whatever it takes to put the shine back on the IDF's brass.
to be continued...
