Today we will witness the support of Hizballah as they will flex their political muscles in front of the entire world. However, the speculation isn't about the size of the crowd, rather on whether al Sayyid Nasrallah will grace his followers with a public appearance. For all of those unaware, Nasrallah has gone into hiding since July 12th, the outbreak of the 2006 Summer Israeli-Lebanon war. Many people fear that if Nasrallah does make an appearance, Israel will not waste an opportunity to attempt an extra-judicial assassination. It has succeeded in killing many leaders in the past, and based on its poor performance in the Lebanon assault, it would be grateful for a chance to bloat a victory of some sort. My prediction is that Nasrallah will not make a public appearance, although it would make quite a statement if he does, showing the world that he is not afraid of any Israeli threat and he truly is a power in Lebanon.
A counter-rally is scheduled to take place on Sunday by the Lebanese Forces led by Samir Jahjah. It will take place in Harissa, a Christian stronghold known for its church, Our Lady of Harissa. Although the LF rally was not publicized as strongly as the Hizballah rally in Dahiya, it is certainly expected to draw a sizeable crowd.
What does this mean for Lebanon? Will there be more Muslim-Christian tension? With the outrage generated from the Pope's address, it would certainly seem possible. But the situation in Lebanon is no longer as clear cut as it was in the past. Ex-general Michel Aoun's party has allied itself with Hizballah before the conflict in a key move to consolidate his power base and pave way for a future position in the Lebanese government (possibly as the next president). He has flipped and flopped as the Christian Anti-Syria leader to Syria's mediator among the Christians in Lebanon. It will be interesting to see who shows up at the rally in Dahiya, if Aoun supporters join in, and if Nasrallah does make an appearance. What this means for Lebanon is not clear as the country continues down a path of uncertainty and political instability.
The dynamics are shifting back to the pre-war atmosphere of the March 14th (Anti-Syrian) and March 8th (Pro-Syrian) groups. If this is the case, then one would have to anticipate more assassinations and carbombings to rock Lebanon in the near future. As politicians are growing bolder with their criticisms of each other, it is putting Lebanon's "unity" to a test that will eventually push the sensitive frictions into civil strife.
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